The September 2026 FOMC decision lifted the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00 percent—the first hike since 2023—driven by sticky core PCE inflation near 3.4 percent and upside risks from energy prices. Updated dot-plot projections show a median endpoint of 4.1 percent by year-end 2026, implying one additional 25-basis-point increase, most likely at the December 8–9 meeting. Recent comments from New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson have tempered October 27–28 hike odds, shifting market-implied paths toward a single year-end move while labor-market data remain resilient near 4.1 percent unemployment. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures continue to price this modest tightening trajectory through year-end.