The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting traders to price a 37.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike somewhere in 2026 on Polymarket, up from prior levels. Despite this, the "No" outcome holds a commanding 62.5% market-implied odds as the Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 29 FOMC meeting amid dissents but no hawkish pivot, with the March dot plot median projecting slight easing to around 3.4% by year-end. Steady unemployment at 4.3% and resilient job growth reinforce trader consensus for steady or accommodative policy, though the June 17-18 FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
$1,092,409 ปริมาณ
$1,092,409 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
ใช่
$1,092,409 ปริมาณ
$1,092,409 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting traders to price a 37.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike somewhere in 2026 on Polymarket, up from prior levels. Despite this, the "No" outcome holds a commanding 62.5% market-implied odds as the Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 29 FOMC meeting amid dissents but no hawkish pivot, with the March dot plot median projecting slight easing to around 3.4% by year-end. Steady unemployment at 4.3% and resilient job growth reinforce trader consensus for steady or accommodative policy, though the June 17-18 FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,092,409วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting traders to price a 37.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike somewhere in 2026 on Polymarket, up from prior levels. Despite this, the "No" outcome holds a commanding 62.5% market-implied odds as the Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 29 FOMC meeting amid dissents but no hawkish pivot, with the March dot plot median projecting slight easing to around 3.4% by year-end. Steady unemployment at 4.3% and resilient job growth reinforce trader consensus for steady or accommodative policy, though the June 17-18 FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,092,409วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The April 2026 Consumer Price Index surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, prompting traders to price a 37.5% implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike somewhere in 2026 on Polymarket, up from prior levels. Despite this, the "No" outcome holds a commanding 62.5% market-implied odds as the Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through the April 29 FOMC meeting amid dissents but no hawkish pivot, with the March dot plot median projecting slight easing to around 3.4% by year-end. Steady unemployment at 4.3% and resilient job growth reinforce trader consensus for steady or accommodative policy, though the June 17-18 FOMC and May CPI data loom as key catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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