Persistent inflation around 3.4% YoY in July 2026 CPI, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader views toward a possible Fed hike this year despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%. The June FOMC dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end, with some recent dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. Solid economic growth and stable labor conditions support the current restrictive stance, but moderating core inflation near 2.5% and upcoming August CPI and employment data could sway the closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability for any 2026 hike.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
52% โอกาส
$7,428,382 ปริมาณ
$7,428,382 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
ใช่
52% โอกาส
$7,428,382 ปริมาณ
$7,428,382 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation around 3.4% YoY in July 2026 CPI, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader views toward a possible Fed hike this year despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%. The June FOMC dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end, with some recent dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. Solid economic growth and stable labor conditions support the current restrictive stance, but moderating core inflation near 2.5% and upcoming August CPI and employment data could sway the closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability for any 2026 hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,428,382วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation around 3.4% YoY in July 2026 CPI, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader views toward a possible Fed hike this year despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%. The June FOMC dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end, with some recent dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. Solid economic growth and stable labor conditions support the current restrictive stance, but moderating core inflation near 2.5% and upcoming August CPI and employment data could sway the closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability for any 2026 hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,428,382วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation around 3.4% YoY in July 2026 CPI, driven partly by energy prices amid Middle East tensions, has shifted trader views toward a possible Fed hike this year despite the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75%. The June FOMC dot plot showed nine of 18 participants projecting higher rates by year-end, with some recent dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase, contrasting earlier expectations of cuts. Solid economic growth and stable labor conditions support the current restrictive stance, but moderating core inflation near 2.5% and upcoming August CPI and employment data could sway the closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability for any 2026 hike.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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