Polymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
การตัดสินใจของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (มี .ค .- มิ .ย.)
พัก–พัก–พัก 97.3%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.8%
อื่นๆ 1.4%
$1,068,028 ปริมาณ
$1,068,028 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
97%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
2%
อื่นๆ
1%
พัก–พัก–พัก 97.3%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด 1.8%
อื่นๆ 1.4%
$1,068,028 ปริมาณ
$1,068,028 ปริมาณ
Jun 17, 2026
พัก–พัก–พัก
$55,239 ปริมาณ
97%
หยุด–หยุด–ลด
$27,054 ปริมาณ
2%
อื่นๆ
$240,394 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,068,028วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,068,028วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 97.4% implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses at the March 17–18 and April 28–29 sessions amid reaccelerating inflation. April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—up from March's 3.3%—driven by energy pressures, while March core PCE hit 3.2% and April nonfarm payrolls added a resilient 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. This data supports the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization. Realistic challenges include sharper labor market weakening or unexpected inflation cooldown ahead of the June 16–17 meeting, potentially prompting a cut.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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