Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว54 97.6%
55 2.1%
53 1.6%
60+ 1.0%
$195,893 ปริมาณ
$195,893 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
<1%
50
<1%
51
<1%
52
<1%
53
2%
54
98%
55
2%
56
<1%
57
<1%
58
<1%
59
<1%
60+
1%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
<1%
54 97.6%
55 2.1%
53 1.6%
60+ 1.0%
$195,893 ปริมาณ
$195,893 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
$35,771 ปริมาณ
<1%
50
$14,246 ปริมาณ
<1%
51
$14,171 ปริมาณ
<1%
52
$10,336 ปริมาณ
<1%
53
$1,744 ปริมาณ
2%
54
$4,721 ปริมาณ
98%
55
$844 ปริมาณ
2%
56
$16,049 ปริมาณ
<1%
57
$13,784 ปริมาณ
<1%
58
$14,619 ปริมาณ
<1%
59
$14,777 ปริมาณ
<1%
60+
$45,632 ปริมาณ
1%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
$9,597 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$195,893วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$195,893วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors 54 Senate yes votes for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to chair the Federal Reserve succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, reflecting unified Republican support from the party's 53-member majority plus expected crossover from centrist Democrat Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA). This positioning stems from Warsh's recent 13-11 party-line Senate Banking Committee advancement in late April, a 51-45 floor confirmation to the Fed Board of Governors on May 12 with Fetterman's backing, and procedural cloture votes showing minimal GOP defections. Fetterman's public endorsement amid low controversy has solidified the narrow path to confirmation without filibuster. Scenarios challenging 54 include additional Democratic crossovers for 55, a Republican holdout dropping to 53, or further absences altering the tally before the final floor vote.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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