Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader expectations toward a possible federal funds rate hike by year-end, with the target range currently held at 3.50–3.75%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced forward guidance and a divided July FOMC vote—three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—have reinforced perceptions of a more hawkish policy tilt, even as the labor market shows signs of softening with downward payroll revisions. CME FedWatch futures currently embed roughly even odds for a September move, with higher probabilities priced for October. The upcoming July CPI release and August jobs data will provide key inputs ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures could tip the balance between holding steady or tightening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$2,148,589 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
37%
October Meeting
49%
$2,148,589 ปริมาณ
September Meeting
$765,297 ปริมาณ
37%
October Meeting
$423,293 ปริมาณ
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader expectations toward a possible federal funds rate hike by year-end, with the target range currently held at 3.50–3.75%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced forward guidance and a divided July FOMC vote—three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—have reinforced perceptions of a more hawkish policy tilt, even as the labor market shows signs of softening with downward payroll revisions. CME FedWatch futures currently embed roughly even odds for a September move, with higher probabilities priced for October. The upcoming July CPI release and August jobs data will provide key inputs ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures could tip the balance between holding steady or tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,148,589วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader expectations toward a possible federal funds rate hike by year-end, with the target range currently held at 3.50–3.75%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced forward guidance and a divided July FOMC vote—three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—have reinforced perceptions of a more hawkish policy tilt, even as the labor market shows signs of softening with downward payroll revisions. CME FedWatch futures currently embed roughly even odds for a September move, with higher probabilities priced for October. The upcoming July CPI release and August jobs data will provide key inputs ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures could tip the balance between holding steady or tightening.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,148,589วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with energy price pressures from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader expectations toward a possible federal funds rate hike by year-end, with the target range currently held at 3.50–3.75%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced forward guidance and a divided July FOMC vote—three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase—have reinforced perceptions of a more hawkish policy tilt, even as the labor market shows signs of softening with downward payroll revisions. CME FedWatch futures currently embed roughly even odds for a September move, with higher probabilities priced for October. The upcoming July CPI release and August jobs data will provide key inputs ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures could tip the balance between holding steady or tightening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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