Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability on consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term rate cut hopes. April CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—while nonfarm payrolls added a firmer-than-feared 115,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict fueling energy costs. Brokerages including BofA have delayed cut forecasts to 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-95% hold odds for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut bets if inflation eases toward the Fed's 2% target.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7.4%
Other 4.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$48,655 ปริมาณ
$48,655 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 7.4%
Other 4.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$48,655 ปริมาณ
$48,655 ปริมาณ
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,302 ปริมาณ
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,609 ปริมาณ
7%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,560 ปริมาณ
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,605 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$1,595 ปริมาณ
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability on consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term rate cut hopes. April CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—while nonfarm payrolls added a firmer-than-feared 115,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict fueling energy costs. Brokerages including BofA have delayed cut forecasts to 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-95% hold odds for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut bets if inflation eases toward the Fed's 2% target.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,655วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability on consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term rate cut hopes. April CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—while nonfarm payrolls added a firmer-than-feared 115,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict fueling energy costs. Brokerages including BofA have delayed cut forecasts to 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-95% hold odds for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut bets if inflation eases toward the Fed's 2% target.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,655วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 92.5% implied probability on consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has dashed near-term rate cut hopes. April CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—while nonfarm payrolls added a firmer-than-feared 115,000 jobs, signaling persistent inflation pressures and a robust labor market amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict fueling energy costs. Brokerages including BofA have delayed cut forecasts to 2027, aligning with CME FedWatch's near-95% hold odds for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or jobs data ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially reviving cut bets if inflation eases toward the Fed's 2% target.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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