The recent closure of the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, with a federal judge citing essentially zero evidence of wrongdoing tied to Federal Reserve headquarters renovations or congressional testimony, has anchored the 97.5 percent market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. This outcome reinforces the institutional protections around the former Fed Chair, who stepped down from the leadership role on May 15, 2026, yet continues serving on the Board of Governors through at least January 2028, preserving monetary policy continuity amid stable inflation and labor market data. Trader consensus reflects the absence of any active indictments or credible legal pathways, consistent with historical precedent for senior central bankers. Tail-risk scenarios, such as an unforeseen congressional referral or future administration reversal, remain remote given the probe’s definitive dismissal and judicial findings.