The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations eliminated the sole credible legal threat, following a March court ruling that labeled the subpoenas a pretext for political pressure. With the investigation closed months before Powell's May 2026 term end and no subsequent charges or credible allegations emerging, traders assign a 98.3% probability to "No" based on the absence of any prosecutable conduct or ongoing cases. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to unforeseen future developments after his departure from office, such as novel unrelated allegations, though institutional norms and lack of evidence make such outcomes highly remote.