Polymarket traders price a 72.2% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting resilient economic data and resurgent inflation risks that have eroded expectations for easing. April 2026 CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy spikes from the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid four dissents, diverging from the March dot plot's median one-cut forecast to 3.4% by year-end. Brokerages like BofA and J.P. Morgan now see holds through 2026, with CME FedWatch aligning at ~71% no-change odds; June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next pivot.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วมีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
มีการลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดกี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 72.4%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.1%
$26,227,826 ปริมาณ
$26,227,826 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
72%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
2%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 จุดเบสิส) 72.4%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน) 16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน) 7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน) 2.1%
$26,227,826 ปริมาณ
$26,227,826 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 จุดเบสิส)
$4,086,891 ปริมาณ
72%
1 (25 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,218,692 ปริมาณ
16%
2 (50 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,170,611 ปริมาณ
7%
3 (75 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,069,540 ปริมาณ
2%
4 (100 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,147,233 ปริมาณ
1%
5 (125 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,380,803 ปริมาณ
1%
6 (150 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,436,680 ปริมาณ
1%
7 (175 จุดเบี้ยว)
$1,291,324 ปริมาณ
<1%
8 (200 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$1,690,467 ปริมาณ
<1%
9 (225 จุดพื้นฐาน)
$2,410,337 ปริมาณ
<1%
10 (250 บีพีเอส)
$3,019,196 ปริมาณ
<1%
11 (275 จุดเบสิส)
$3,197,492 ปริมาณ
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$2,108,754 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 72.2% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting resilient economic data and resurgent inflation risks that have eroded expectations for easing. April 2026 CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy spikes from the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid four dissents, diverging from the March dot plot's median one-cut forecast to 3.4% by year-end. Brokerages like BofA and J.P. Morgan now see holds through 2026, with CME FedWatch aligning at ~71% no-change odds; June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next pivot.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,227,826วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 72.2% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting resilient economic data and resurgent inflation risks that have eroded expectations for easing. April 2026 CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy spikes from the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid four dissents, diverging from the March dot plot's median one-cut forecast to 3.4% by year-end. Brokerages like BofA and J.P. Morgan now see holds through 2026, with CME FedWatch aligning at ~71% no-change odds; June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next pivot.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,227,826วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 72.2% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting resilient economic data and resurgent inflation risks that have eroded expectations for easing. April 2026 CPI surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% annually—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy spikes from the Iran war, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. The Fed maintained its 3.50%-3.75% target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid four dissents, diverging from the March dot plot's median one-cut forecast to 3.4% by year-end. Brokerages like BofA and J.P. Morgan now see holds through 2026, with CME FedWatch aligning at ~71% no-change odds; June 16-17 FOMC looms as the next pivot.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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