Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with a resilient economy and solid labor market data showing unemployment near 4.1%, has anchored trader expectations for one additional 25-basis-point hike at the December FOMC meeting. Recent October CPI readings came in hotter than anticipated, reinforcing views that price pressures remain broad-based amid energy costs and strong demand. FOMC projections and official remarks from governors have aligned with a terminal range centered near 4.00-4.25% by year-end, with markets assigning high probability to that path while pricing only modest further tightening risk into 2027. This consensus reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing incoming data releases and policy signals through December.