Recent inflation data and energy price pressures have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4% by December 2026, with the 4.0% and 4.25% outcomes closely matched amid uncertainty over the pace of any further tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and revised FOMC projections pointing to higher inflation have supported modest rate-hike probabilities in futures markets, while resilient growth and labor conditions limit room for cuts. The September 16 FOMC meeting and its updated dot plot could clarify the path, though sticky core readings and potential supply disruptions continue to sustain the balanced probabilities between these two leading levels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วอัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดจะเป็นเท่าใดในตอนท้ายของปี 2026?
อัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดจะเป็นเท่าใดในตอนท้ายของปี 2026?
4.0% 35.0%
4.25% 33.5%
≥ 4.5% 19.4%
3.75% 6.9%
$6,851,139 ปริมาณ
$6,851,139 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
<1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
<1%
3.25%
<1%
3.5%
4%
3.75%
7%
4.0%
40%
4.25%
33%
≥ 4.5%
19%
4.0% 35.0%
4.25% 33.5%
≥ 4.5% 19.4%
3.75% 6.9%
$6,851,139 ปริมาณ
$6,851,139 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
≤1.0%
$256,293 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.25
$150,952 ปริมาณ
1%
1.5%
$150,168 ปริมาณ
<1%
1.75%
$153,208 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.0%
$268,805 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.25%
$92,336 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.5%
$178,980 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.75%
$69,588 ปริมาณ
1%
3.0%
$499,515 ปริมาณ
<1%
3.25%
$72,144 ปริมาณ
<1%
3.5%
$204,061 ปริมาณ
4%
3.75%
$535,948 ปริมาณ
7%
4.0%
$1,372,897 ปริมาณ
40%
4.25%
$434,576 ปริมาณ
33%
≥ 4.5%
$2,411,667 ปริมาณ
19%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation data and energy price pressures have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4% by December 2026, with the 4.0% and 4.25% outcomes closely matched amid uncertainty over the pace of any further tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and revised FOMC projections pointing to higher inflation have supported modest rate-hike probabilities in futures markets, while resilient growth and labor conditions limit room for cuts. The September 16 FOMC meeting and its updated dot plot could clarify the path, though sticky core readings and potential supply disruptions continue to sustain the balanced probabilities between these two leading levels.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,851,139วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent inflation data and energy price pressures have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4% by December 2026, with the 4.0% and 4.25% outcomes closely matched amid uncertainty over the pace of any further tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and revised FOMC projections pointing to higher inflation have supported modest rate-hike probabilities in futures markets, while resilient growth and labor conditions limit room for cuts. The September 16 FOMC meeting and its updated dot plot could clarify the path, though sticky core readings and potential supply disruptions continue to sustain the balanced probabilities between these two leading levels.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,851,139วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent inflation data and energy price pressures have anchored trader expectations for the federal funds rate near 4% by December 2026, with the 4.0% and 4.25% outcomes closely matched amid uncertainty over the pace of any further tightening. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and revised FOMC projections pointing to higher inflation have supported modest rate-hike probabilities in futures markets, while resilient growth and labor conditions limit room for cuts. The September 16 FOMC meeting and its updated dot plot could clarify the path, though sticky core readings and potential supply disruptions continue to sustain the balanced probabilities between these two leading levels.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย