The Federal Reserve’s current 3.75–4.00% target range and September 2026 dot plot, which showed a 4.1% median projection for year-end 2026, underpin the overwhelming trader preference for a 4.25% outcome. Persistent inflation above the 2% goal, resilient growth, and a stable labor market have kept policy restrictive, with the October hold followed by near-unanimous expectations of a 25-basis-point December hike at the final 2026 FOMC meeting. Futures pricing and recent comments from officials, including support for tightening even amid modest cooling, reinforce this path. With no further meetings scheduled before year-end, the probability of additional moves remains low, concentrating consensus around the post-hike range.