Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว3.75% 33.1%
4.25% 22.4%
4.0% 19.8%
≥ 4.5% 9.4%
$6,668,051 ปริมาณ
$6,668,051 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
1%
1.25
1%
1.5%
1%
1.75%
1%
2.0%
<1%
2.25%
1%
2.5%
1%
2.75%
1%
3.0%
2%
3.25%
1%
3.5%
8%
3.75%
33%
4.0%
20%
4.25%
22%
≥ 4.5%
9%
3.75% 33.1%
4.25% 22.4%
4.0% 19.8%
≥ 4.5% 9.4%
$6,668,051 ปริมาณ
$6,668,051 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
≤1.0%
$221,783 ปริมาณ
1%
1.25
$137,663 ปริมาณ
1%
1.5%
$143,120 ปริมาณ
1%
1.75%
$142,745 ปริมาณ
1%
2.0%
$255,958 ปริมาณ
<1%
2.25%
$80,885 ปริมาณ
1%
2.5%
$167,510 ปริมาณ
1%
2.75%
$56,341 ปริมาณ
1%
3.0%
$485,011 ปริมาณ
2%
3.25%
$58,836 ปริมาณ
1%
3.5%
$199,906 ปริมาณ
8%
3.75%
$525,803 ปริมาณ
33%
4.0%
$1,366,035 ปริมาณ
20%
4.25%
$422,427 ปริมาณ
22%
≥ 4.5%
$2,404,027 ปริมาณ
9%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,668,051วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,668,051วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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