Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have shaped trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with markets currently pricing a 67.5% implied probability of no change to the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. June CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, while the July employment report released August 7 surprised with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, signaling labor-market softening that tempers hawkish momentum. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has kept some probability (23.5%) on a 25-basis-point hike, though recent cooling readings and the upcoming August CPI release on August 12 are reinforcing the consensus for a pause ahead of the September meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$538,731 ปริมาณ
$538,731 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$538,731 ปริมาณ
$538,731 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$118,814 ปริมาณ
2%
25 bps decrease
$143,762 ปริมาณ
7%
No change
$109,525 ปริมาณ
68%
25 bps increase
$123,468 ปริมาณ
24%
50+ bps increase
$43,162 ปริมาณ
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have shaped trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with markets currently pricing a 67.5% implied probability of no change to the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. June CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, while the July employment report released August 7 surprised with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, signaling labor-market softening that tempers hawkish momentum. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has kept some probability (23.5%) on a 25-basis-point hike, though recent cooling readings and the upcoming August CPI release on August 12 are reinforcing the consensus for a pause ahead of the September meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$538,731วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have shaped trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with markets currently pricing a 67.5% implied probability of no change to the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. June CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, while the July employment report released August 7 surprised with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, signaling labor-market softening that tempers hawkish momentum. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has kept some probability (23.5%) on a 25-basis-point hike, though recent cooling readings and the upcoming August CPI release on August 12 are reinforcing the consensus for a pause ahead of the September meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$538,731วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve communications have shaped trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, with markets currently pricing a 67.5% implied probability of no change to the 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range. June CPI showed headline inflation easing to 3.5% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, while the July employment report released August 7 surprised with a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, signaling labor-market softening that tempers hawkish momentum. Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has kept some probability (23.5%) on a 25-basis-point hike, though recent cooling readings and the upcoming August CPI release on August 12 are reinforcing the consensus for a pause ahead of the September meeting.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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