Recent June 2026 CPI data showing a 3.5% year-over-year rate, down from 4.2% in May, has tempered immediate hike expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, supporting the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and solid economic growth with stable labor markets underpin the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase, while limited evidence of cooling pressures keeps rate-cut probabilities below 8%. Upcoming July CPI and August data releases, along with September FOMC communications, remain key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$520,157 ปริมาณ
$520,157 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 7%
50+ bps increase 2.1%
$520,157 ปริมาณ
$520,157 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$118,399 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$127,343 ปริมาณ
7%
No change
$108,845 ปริมาณ
68%
25 bps increase
$122,680 ปริมาณ
24%
50+ bps increase
$42,890 ปริมาณ
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing a 3.5% year-over-year rate, down from 4.2% in May, has tempered immediate hike expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, supporting the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and solid economic growth with stable labor markets underpin the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase, while limited evidence of cooling pressures keeps rate-cut probabilities below 8%. Upcoming July CPI and August data releases, along with September FOMC communications, remain key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$520,157วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June 2026 CPI data showing a 3.5% year-over-year rate, down from 4.2% in May, has tempered immediate hike expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, supporting the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and solid economic growth with stable labor markets underpin the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase, while limited evidence of cooling pressures keeps rate-cut probabilities below 8%. Upcoming July CPI and August data releases, along with September FOMC communications, remain key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$520,157วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June 2026 CPI data showing a 3.5% year-over-year rate, down from 4.2% in May, has tempered immediate hike expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, supporting the 67.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, and solid economic growth with stable labor markets underpin the 23.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase, while limited evidence of cooling pressures keeps rate-cut probabilities below 8%. Upcoming July CPI and August data releases, along with September FOMC communications, remain key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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