Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 58%
3 (75 bps) 57%
2 (50 bps) 41%
4 (100 bps) 29%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
28%
1 (25 bps)
58%
2 (50 bps)
41%
3 (75 bps)
57%
4 (100 bps)
29%
5+ (125+ bps)
24%
1 (25 bps) 58%
3 (75 bps) 57%
2 (50 bps) 41%
4 (100 bps) 29%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
1 (25 bps)
$0 ปริมาณ
58%
2 (50 bps)
$0 ปริมาณ
41%
3 (75 bps)
$0 ปริมาณ
57%
4 (100 bps)
$0 ปริมาณ
29%
5+ (125+ bps)
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June 2026 dot plot are the main drivers behind closely matched Polymarket odds on 2026 rate hikes. May CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year, with energy costs surging amid geopolitical pressures, while core inflation reached 2.9%. The median FOMC projection for the year-end federal funds rate shifted to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, with nine officials now seeing at least one hike and eight projecting no change. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s consensus-driven approach and divided projections create uncertainty over the pace of any tightening, as traders weigh upcoming CPI releases, labor data, and potential September or October policy moves against the risk that inflation moderates faster than expected.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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