Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% anchor trader expectations for limited 2026 tightening, with the 46% implied probability on zero hikes reflecting cooling headline CPI to 3.5% year-over-year in June after May's 4.2% print. Persistent core pressures above the 2% target, combined with energy-price volatility and a hawkish tilt from several FOMC participants, support the 31.5% odds on one 25-basis-point move while capping higher counts below 12%. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing in a data-dependent path, with the September FOMC and August CPI release as near-term swing factors that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market softness emerges.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 ปริมาณ
$135,706 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 ปริมาณ
$135,706 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,230 ปริมาณ
46%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 ปริมาณ
32%
2 (50 bps)
$32,523 ปริมาณ
12%
3 (75 bps)
$13,121 ปริมาณ
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 ปริมาณ
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% anchor trader expectations for limited 2026 tightening, with the 46% implied probability on zero hikes reflecting cooling headline CPI to 3.5% year-over-year in June after May's 4.2% print. Persistent core pressures above the 2% target, combined with energy-price volatility and a hawkish tilt from several FOMC participants, support the 31.5% odds on one 25-basis-point move while capping higher counts below 12%. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing in a data-dependent path, with the September FOMC and August CPI release as near-term swing factors that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market softness emerges.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$135,706วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% anchor trader expectations for limited 2026 tightening, with the 46% implied probability on zero hikes reflecting cooling headline CPI to 3.5% year-over-year in June after May's 4.2% print. Persistent core pressures above the 2% target, combined with energy-price volatility and a hawkish tilt from several FOMC participants, support the 31.5% odds on one 25-basis-point move while capping higher counts below 12%. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing in a data-dependent path, with the September FOMC and August CPI release as near-term swing factors that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market softness emerges.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$135,706วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% anchor trader expectations for limited 2026 tightening, with the 46% implied probability on zero hikes reflecting cooling headline CPI to 3.5% year-over-year in June after May's 4.2% print. Persistent core pressures above the 2% target, combined with energy-price volatility and a hawkish tilt from several FOMC participants, support the 31.5% odds on one 25-basis-point move while capping higher counts below 12%. Market-implied odds embed the wisdom of crowds pricing in a data-dependent path, with the September FOMC and August CPI release as near-term swing factors that could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or labor-market softness emerges.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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