Persistent September 2026 CPI data showing 0.6% monthly and 3.7% annual gains, alongside firmer core readings, has reinforced trader expectations for a measured Fed path amid above-target inflation. The September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, followed by FOMC minutes and official comments indicating no urgency for consecutive tightening, positions an October 27–28 pause as the near-certain outcome. This sequencing supports the dominant Hike–Pause–Hike path priced at 71.5%, reflecting resilient growth, sticky energy-driven price pressures, and a softening labor market that tempers immediate action. December remains the key catalyst, with market-implied odds capturing consensus on further adjustment before year-end.