The July 2026 jobs report, showing an unexpected 23,000 nonfarm payroll contraction with sharp downward revisions to prior months, forms the core driver behind current Polymarket odds clustering around 4.1% to 4.3%. Labor force exits pushed the unemployment rate to 4.1% despite hiring weakness, while average hourly earnings growth slowed and participation hit multi-year lows. Consensus forecasts anticipate modest stabilization near 4.1–4.2% for August, yet mixed leading indicators—including subdued hiring momentum and seasonal factors—keep outcomes tightly contested. The August report, due September 4, will resolve the market amid ongoing uncertainty over whether the softening trend persists or rebounds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAugust Unemployment Rate
August Unemployment Rate
4.2% 33%
4.1% 28%
4.3% 24%
4.0% 13%
$13,308 ปริมาณ
$13,308 ปริมาณ
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
13%
4.1%
28%
4.2%
33%
4.3%
24%
4.4%
2%
4.5%
1%
≥4.6%
1%
4.2% 33%
4.1% 28%
4.3% 24%
4.0% 13%
$13,308 ปริมาณ
$13,308 ปริมาณ
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$323 ปริมาณ
<1%
3.9%
$368 ปริมาณ
1%
4.0%
$1,517 ปริมาณ
13%
4.1%
$4,321 ปริมาณ
28%
4.2%
$2,584 ปริมาณ
33%
4.3%
$2,857 ปริมาณ
24%
4.4%
$568 ปริมาณ
2%
4.5%
$380 ปริมาณ
1%
≥4.6%
$389 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The July 2026 jobs report, showing an unexpected 23,000 nonfarm payroll contraction with sharp downward revisions to prior months, forms the core driver behind current Polymarket odds clustering around 4.1% to 4.3%. Labor force exits pushed the unemployment rate to 4.1% despite hiring weakness, while average hourly earnings growth slowed and participation hit multi-year lows. Consensus forecasts anticipate modest stabilization near 4.1–4.2% for August, yet mixed leading indicators—including subdued hiring momentum and seasonal factors—keep outcomes tightly contested. The August report, due September 4, will resolve the market amid ongoing uncertainty over whether the softening trend persists or rebounds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,308วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The July 2026 jobs report, showing an unexpected 23,000 nonfarm payroll contraction with sharp downward revisions to prior months, forms the core driver behind current Polymarket odds clustering around 4.1% to 4.3%. Labor force exits pushed the unemployment rate to 4.1% despite hiring weakness, while average hourly earnings growth slowed and participation hit multi-year lows. Consensus forecasts anticipate modest stabilization near 4.1–4.2% for August, yet mixed leading indicators—including subdued hiring momentum and seasonal factors—keep outcomes tightly contested. The August report, due September 4, will resolve the market amid ongoing uncertainty over whether the softening trend persists or rebounds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,308วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The July 2026 jobs report, showing an unexpected 23,000 nonfarm payroll contraction with sharp downward revisions to prior months, forms the core driver behind current Polymarket odds clustering around 4.1% to 4.3%. Labor force exits pushed the unemployment rate to 4.1% despite hiring weakness, while average hourly earnings growth slowed and participation hit multi-year lows. Consensus forecasts anticipate modest stabilization near 4.1–4.2% for August, yet mixed leading indicators—including subdued hiring momentum and seasonal factors—keep outcomes tightly contested. The August report, due September 4, will resolve the market amid ongoing uncertainty over whether the softening trend persists or rebounds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย