Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$481,360 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
10%
5.5%
8%
6.0%
7%
7.0%
5%
10.0%
3%
$481,360 ปริมาณ
5.0%
$123,066 ปริมาณ
10%
5.5%
$200,573 ปริมาณ
8%
6.0%
$75,518 ปริมาณ
7%
7.0%
$31,207 ปริมาณ
5%
10.0%
$50,996 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$481,360วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$481,360วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market data show unemployment stabilizing near 4.3-4.4% after rising from 4.1% in 2025, with job growth slowing sharply to roughly 75,000-88,000 monthly amid reduced immigration and a shift to a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Forecasters from the Philadelphia Fed, CBO, and private institutions project the rate holding in the 4.2-4.5% range through 2026-2027, reflecting balanced but fragile conditions with limited layoffs offset by subdued hiring. Key drivers include Federal Reserve policy holding the funds rate steady pending clearer inflation and employment signals, plus downside risks from AI-driven displacement, geopolitical tensions, and potential revisions to prior payrolls. The next BLS employment report and September FOMC meeting represent immediate catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around peak levels for the year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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