Recent July 2026 data showing U.S. unemployment at 4.1% and headline CPI inflation at 3.4% underpin the market's 53.5% implied probability on a soft landing and 40% on overheating, both reflecting sub-5% joblessness. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid sticky price pressures and solid growth has reinforced trader expectations that labor market resilience will persist into year-end without tipping into stagflation or slack. Modest monthly cooling in both metrics has tempered overheating odds relative to earlier 2026 readings, while low recession probabilities keep downside scenarios below 6% combined. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, alongside any September FOMC signals, represent key near-term catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 54%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 40%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 1.1%
$67,353 ปริมาณ
$67,353 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
54%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
40%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
4%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 54%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 40%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 4.5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 1.1%
$67,353 ปริมาณ
$67,353 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$30,768 ปริมาณ
54%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$23,981 ปริมาณ
40%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,309 ปริมาณ
4%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,295 ปริมาณ
1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing U.S. unemployment at 4.1% and headline CPI inflation at 3.4% underpin the market's 53.5% implied probability on a soft landing and 40% on overheating, both reflecting sub-5% joblessness. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid sticky price pressures and solid growth has reinforced trader expectations that labor market resilience will persist into year-end without tipping into stagflation or slack. Modest monthly cooling in both metrics has tempered overheating odds relative to earlier 2026 readings, while low recession probabilities keep downside scenarios below 6% combined. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, alongside any September FOMC signals, represent key near-term catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$67,353วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent July 2026 data showing U.S. unemployment at 4.1% and headline CPI inflation at 3.4% underpin the market's 53.5% implied probability on a soft landing and 40% on overheating, both reflecting sub-5% joblessness. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid sticky price pressures and solid growth has reinforced trader expectations that labor market resilience will persist into year-end without tipping into stagflation or slack. Modest monthly cooling in both metrics has tempered overheating odds relative to earlier 2026 readings, while low recession probabilities keep downside scenarios below 6% combined. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, alongside any September FOMC signals, represent key near-term catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$67,353วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 data showing U.S. unemployment at 4.1% and headline CPI inflation at 3.4% underpin the market's 53.5% implied probability on a soft landing and 40% on overheating, both reflecting sub-5% joblessness. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid sticky price pressures and solid growth has reinforced trader expectations that labor market resilience will persist into year-end without tipping into stagflation or slack. Modest monthly cooling in both metrics has tempered overheating odds relative to earlier 2026 readings, while low recession probabilities keep downside scenarios below 6% combined. Upcoming August employment and CPI releases, alongside any September FOMC signals, represent key near-term catalysts for shifts in these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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