Recent U.S. data shows the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI inflation of 3.4% year-over-year, keeping both soft landing and overheating outcomes in play at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% reflects persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target, with some FOMC members favoring hikes amid supply shocks and policy uncertainty. Trader consensus assigns a 60.5% implied probability to soft landing conditions given the resilient labor market and gradual disinflation trend, while the 37.5% overheating share prices in risks from tariffs, fiscal measures, and potential reacceleration in price pressures. Stagflation and slack scenarios remain remote at under 2% combined, as employment stays well below the 5% threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS economic state at the end of 2026?
US economic state at the end of 2026?
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 61%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 1.8%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$69,861 ปริมาณ
$69,861 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
61%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
2%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
<1%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) 61%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) 1.8%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) <1%
$69,861 ปริมาณ
$69,861 ปริมาณ
Jan 31, 2027
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$32,695 ปริมาณ
61%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$24,156 ปริมาณ
38%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
$10,561 ปริมาณ
2%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
$2,448 ปริมาณ
<1%
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent U.S. data shows the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI inflation of 3.4% year-over-year, keeping both soft landing and overheating outcomes in play at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% reflects persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target, with some FOMC members favoring hikes amid supply shocks and policy uncertainty. Trader consensus assigns a 60.5% implied probability to soft landing conditions given the resilient labor market and gradual disinflation trend, while the 37.5% overheating share prices in risks from tariffs, fiscal measures, and potential reacceleration in price pressures. Stagflation and slack scenarios remain remote at under 2% combined, as employment stays well below the 5% threshold.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$69,861วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.Recent U.S. data shows the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI inflation of 3.4% year-over-year, keeping both soft landing and overheating outcomes in play at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% reflects persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target, with some FOMC members favoring hikes amid supply shocks and policy uncertainty. Trader consensus assigns a 60.5% implied probability to soft landing conditions given the resilient labor market and gradual disinflation trend, while the 37.5% overheating share prices in risks from tariffs, fiscal measures, and potential reacceleration in price pressures. Stagflation and slack scenarios remain remote at under 2% combined, as employment stays well below the 5% threshold.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$69,861วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. data shows the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 alongside headline CPI inflation of 3.4% year-over-year, keeping both soft landing and overheating outcomes in play at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75% reflects persistent inflation concerns above the 2% target, with some FOMC members favoring hikes amid supply shocks and policy uncertainty. Trader consensus assigns a 60.5% implied probability to soft landing conditions given the resilient labor market and gradual disinflation trend, while the 37.5% overheating share prices in risks from tariffs, fiscal measures, and potential reacceleration in price pressures. Stagflation and slack scenarios remain remote at under 2% combined, as employment stays well below the 5% threshold.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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