Polymarket traders assign a leading 34.5% implied probability to a May unemployment rate of 4.3%, narrowly ahead of 4.4% at 28% and 4.2% at 20%, capturing a closely contested labor market outlook after April's BLS report held the rate steady at 4.3% despite just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions—down from March's 185,000—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.4 million. Moderately higher initial jobless claims at 211,000 for the week ended May 9 signal potential softening, tempering April's ADP private payroll gain of 109,000, while unchanged ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 points to stable factory activity. Consensus economist estimates cluster around 4.3-4.4%, with the May ADP report on June 3 and ISM services PMI as pivotal swing factors before the June 6 BLS release.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.1% 26.6%
4.2% 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
3%
4.0%
10%
4.1%
27%
4.2%
21%
4.3%
38%
4.4%
34%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
5%
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.1% 26.6%
4.2% 16%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
$45 ปริมาณ
3%
4.0%
$73 ปริมาณ
10%
4.1%
$45 ปริมาณ
27%
4.2%
$38 ปริมาณ
21%
4.3%
$107 ปริมาณ
38%
4.4%
$54 ปริมาณ
34%
4.5%
$50 ปริมาณ
11%
4.6%
$44 ปริมาณ
4%
≥4.7%
$51 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a leading 34.5% implied probability to a May unemployment rate of 4.3%, narrowly ahead of 4.4% at 28% and 4.2% at 20%, capturing a closely contested labor market outlook after April's BLS report held the rate steady at 4.3% despite just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions—down from March's 185,000—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.4 million. Moderately higher initial jobless claims at 211,000 for the week ended May 9 signal potential softening, tempering April's ADP private payroll gain of 109,000, while unchanged ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 points to stable factory activity. Consensus economist estimates cluster around 4.3-4.4%, with the May ADP report on June 3 and ISM services PMI as pivotal swing factors before the June 6 BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$508วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a leading 34.5% implied probability to a May unemployment rate of 4.3%, narrowly ahead of 4.4% at 28% and 4.2% at 20%, capturing a closely contested labor market outlook after April's BLS report held the rate steady at 4.3% despite just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions—down from March's 185,000—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.4 million. Moderately higher initial jobless claims at 211,000 for the week ended May 9 signal potential softening, tempering April's ADP private payroll gain of 109,000, while unchanged ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 points to stable factory activity. Consensus economist estimates cluster around 4.3-4.4%, with the May ADP report on June 3 and ISM services PMI as pivotal swing factors before the June 6 BLS release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$508วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a leading 34.5% implied probability to a May unemployment rate of 4.3%, narrowly ahead of 4.4% at 28% and 4.2% at 20%, capturing a closely contested labor market outlook after April's BLS report held the rate steady at 4.3% despite just 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions—down from March's 185,000—and a slight rise in the unemployed to 7.4 million. Moderately higher initial jobless claims at 211,000 for the week ended May 9 signal potential softening, tempering April's ADP private payroll gain of 109,000, while unchanged ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 points to stable factory activity. Consensus economist estimates cluster around 4.3-4.4%, with the May ADP report on June 3 and ISM services PMI as pivotal swing factors before the June 6 BLS release.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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