Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the ECB deposit rate to 2.25% at the June 10-11 Governing Council meeting, driven by April 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 10.9% energy inflation amid geopolitical risks including the Iran war and rising oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in President Lagarde's press conference, extensively debating a June move while wage growth and services inflation remain sticky above target. No-change odds at 17.7% reflect some softening in sentiment from May 13 reports questioning hike certainty, with negligible probabilities on larger hikes or cuts; key flash May CPI due soon could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 16.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$247,332 ปริมาณ
$247,332 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
17%
25 bps Increase
83%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 16.6%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$247,332 ปริมาณ
$247,332 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$48,607 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$41,666 ปริมาณ
<1%
No change
$50,535 ปริมาณ
17%
25 bps Increase
$59,440 ปริมาณ
83%
50+ bps increase
$47,084 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the ECB deposit rate to 2.25% at the June 10-11 Governing Council meeting, driven by April 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 10.9% energy inflation amid geopolitical risks including the Iran war and rising oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in President Lagarde's press conference, extensively debating a June move while wage growth and services inflation remain sticky above target. No-change odds at 17.7% reflect some softening in sentiment from May 13 reports questioning hike certainty, with negligible probabilities on larger hikes or cuts; key flash May CPI due soon could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$247,332วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the ECB deposit rate to 2.25% at the June 10-11 Governing Council meeting, driven by April 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 10.9% energy inflation amid geopolitical risks including the Iran war and rising oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in President Lagarde's press conference, extensively debating a June move while wage growth and services inflation remain sticky above target. No-change odds at 17.7% reflect some softening in sentiment from May 13 reports questioning hike certainty, with negligible probabilities on larger hikes or cuts; key flash May CPI due soon could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$247,332วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 82.5% implied probability for a 25 basis points (bps) hike in the ECB deposit rate to 2.25% at the June 10-11 Governing Council meeting, driven by April 2026 Eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—the highest since September 2023—fueled by 10.9% energy inflation amid geopolitical risks including the Iran war and rising oil prices. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30 but signaled hawkish concerns in President Lagarde's press conference, extensively debating a June move while wage growth and services inflation remain sticky above target. No-change odds at 17.7% reflect some softening in sentiment from May 13 reports questioning hike certainty, with negligible probabilities on larger hikes or cuts; key flash May CPI due soon could shift positioning ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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