Persistent moderation in Russian inflation, which eased to 5.3% year-over-year in May 2026 from 5.6% in April—the lowest level since August 2023—underpins the 79.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia rate cut at the July 24 meeting. Following the April reduction of 50 basis points to 14.5%, the central bank’s communications have emphasized assessing further easing based on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations, with its baseline 2026 average rate forecast of 14.0–14.5% signaling room for additional policy loosening. Elevated pro-inflationary risks tied to fiscal policy and external conditions continue to favor measured 25–50 basis point steps rather than aggressive moves, aligning with the low 2.7% odds of a hike. The June 19 decision and upcoming inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or temper this trader consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBank of Russia decision in July?
Bank of Russia decision in July?
Decrease 53%
No Change 45%
Increase 1.9%
$45,203 ปริมาณ
$45,203 ปริมาณ
Jul 24, 2026
Decrease
53%
No Change
45%
Increase
2%
Decrease 53%
No Change 45%
Increase 1.9%
$45,203 ปริมาณ
$45,203 ปริมาณ
Jul 24, 2026
Decrease
$8,722 ปริมาณ
53%
No Change
$9,988 ปริมาณ
45%
Increase
$26,493 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent moderation in Russian inflation, which eased to 5.3% year-over-year in May 2026 from 5.6% in April—the lowest level since August 2023—underpins the 79.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia rate cut at the July 24 meeting. Following the April reduction of 50 basis points to 14.5%, the central bank’s communications have emphasized assessing further easing based on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations, with its baseline 2026 average rate forecast of 14.0–14.5% signaling room for additional policy loosening. Elevated pro-inflationary risks tied to fiscal policy and external conditions continue to favor measured 25–50 basis point steps rather than aggressive moves, aligning with the low 2.7% odds of a hike. The June 19 decision and upcoming inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or temper this trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 24, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45,203วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 24, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent moderation in Russian inflation, which eased to 5.3% year-over-year in May 2026 from 5.6% in April—the lowest level since August 2023—underpins the 79.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia rate cut at the July 24 meeting. Following the April reduction of 50 basis points to 14.5%, the central bank’s communications have emphasized assessing further easing based on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations, with its baseline 2026 average rate forecast of 14.0–14.5% signaling room for additional policy loosening. Elevated pro-inflationary risks tied to fiscal policy and external conditions continue to favor measured 25–50 basis point steps rather than aggressive moves, aligning with the low 2.7% odds of a hike. The June 19 decision and upcoming inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or temper this trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s July meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its July 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their July 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45,203วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 24, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent moderation in Russian inflation, which eased to 5.3% year-over-year in May 2026 from 5.6% in April—the lowest level since August 2023—underpins the 79.5% implied probability of a Bank of Russia rate cut at the July 24 meeting. Following the April reduction of 50 basis points to 14.5%, the central bank’s communications have emphasized assessing further easing based on sustained disinflation and inflation expectations, with its baseline 2026 average rate forecast of 14.0–14.5% signaling room for additional policy loosening. Elevated pro-inflationary risks tied to fiscal policy and external conditions continue to favor measured 25–50 basis point steps rather than aggressive moves, aligning with the low 2.7% odds of a hike. The June 19 decision and upcoming inflation prints represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or temper this trader consensus.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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