Recent inflation data at 6.0% year-over-year in July, combined with upward revisions to the Bank of Russia's 2026 forecast to 6–7%, have anchored trader expectations for a hold at the September 11 meeting. Fuel supply disruptions from refinery strikes and expansionary fiscal policy continue to generate pro-inflationary pressures that outweigh disinflationary signals from decelerating lending and softer demand expectations. Following the cautious 25 basis point cut to 14% in late July, markets price limited room for another reduction this cycle unless underlying measures fall sustainably toward the 4% target. The negligible probability assigned to a hike reflects the absence of fresh overheating indicators.