The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14%—despite a temporary spike in inflation expectations tied to fuel price pressures from refinery capacity disruptions—has anchored trader views ahead of the September 11 meeting. Underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5% annualized, while moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and softer corporate demand expectations support the case for another modest easing. At the same time, the central bank’s revised 2026 inflation outlook of 6–7% and its emphasis on a gradual pace given fiscal expansion and external risks tilt consensus toward no change at 62.5%. A further reduction retains a 37.5% probability if incoming data confirm disinflation persistence, whereas an increase stays remote at 1.7% absent a sharp reversal in price or expectation trends.