Traders assign a 91% implied probability that no US bank will fail by May 31, driven by the sector’s elevated capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and absence of acute funding stress in regulatory filings. Major institutions continue to report stable net interest margins and low nonperforming loan levels, consistent with Federal Reserve supervisory assessments that show broad resilience to interest-rate and credit shocks. Recent economic data releases have reinforced moderate growth without triggering deposit outflows or sharp Treasury yield spikes that historically precede failures. While an unanticipated liquidity event or rapid deterioration in commercial real estate exposures could still force an insolvency within the narrow window, current market indicators and supervisory metrics provide little evidence of such a catalyst materializing before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS bank failure by May 31?
US bank failure by May 31?
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 31, 2026
ใหม่
ใหม่
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Traders assign a 91% implied probability that no US bank will fail by May 31, driven by the sector’s elevated capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and absence of acute funding stress in regulatory filings. Major institutions continue to report stable net interest margins and low nonperforming loan levels, consistent with Federal Reserve supervisory assessments that show broad resilience to interest-rate and credit shocks. Recent economic data releases have reinforced moderate growth without triggering deposit outflows or sharp Treasury yield spikes that historically precede failures. While an unanticipated liquidity event or rapid deterioration in commercial real estate exposures could still force an insolvency within the narrow window, current market indicators and supervisory metrics provide little evidence of such a catalyst materializing before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,984วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Traders assign a 91% implied probability that no US bank will fail by May 31, driven by the sector’s elevated capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and absence of acute funding stress in regulatory filings. Major institutions continue to report stable net interest margins and low nonperforming loan levels, consistent with Federal Reserve supervisory assessments that show broad resilience to interest-rate and credit shocks. Recent economic data releases have reinforced moderate growth without triggering deposit outflows or sharp Treasury yield spikes that historically precede failures. While an unanticipated liquidity event or rapid deterioration in commercial real estate exposures could still force an insolvency within the narrow window, current market indicators and supervisory metrics provide little evidence of such a catalyst materializing before month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,984วันสิ้นสุด
May 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91% implied probability that no US bank will fail by May 31, driven by the sector’s elevated capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and absence of acute funding stress in regulatory filings. Major institutions continue to report stable net interest margins and low nonperforming loan levels, consistent with Federal Reserve supervisory assessments that show broad resilience to interest-rate and credit shocks. Recent economic data releases have reinforced moderate growth without triggering deposit outflows or sharp Treasury yield spikes that historically precede failures. While an unanticipated liquidity event or rapid deterioration in commercial real estate exposures could still force an insolvency within the narrow window, current market indicators and supervisory metrics provide little evidence of such a catalyst materializing before month-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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