The second-round presidential runoff on November 1 produced turnout in the 27.5-30% range according to parallel counts and preliminary Central Election Commission data, reflecting a modest increase from the record-low 22.98% first-round figure. Persistent voter apathy and institutional distrust limited broader mobilization despite the clearer contest between acting president Iliana Iotova and challenger Andrey Gyurov. Higher participation emerged after midday as runoff dynamics and new eligible voters on the rolls boosted numbers relative to the first round. Trader consensus at 95% for the 27.5-30% band tracks these verified reporting trends and historical base rates for Bulgarian runoffs. Late official tallies, diaspora ballot processing, or invalid-vote adjustments remain the only realistic paths that could alter the final certified percentage.
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