Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$71,635 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
60%+
52%
65%+
29%
70%+
15%
75%+
11%
80%+
7%
90%+
5%
$71,635 ปริมาณ
60%+
$40,843 ปริมาณ
52%
65%+
$16,633 ปริมาณ
29%
70%+
$6,392 ปริมาณ
15%
75%+
$3,602 ปริมาณ
11%
80%+
$1,710 ปริมาณ
7%
90%+
$2,455 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,635วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://agi.safe.ai/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,635วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://agi.safe.ai/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 release, topping September 2026 leaderboards at 59–65% depending on protocol, serves as the main catalyst lifting trader expectations for Humanity’s Last Exam scores by year-end. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, created by CAIS and Scale AI to resist saturation, has seen frontier performance climb rapidly from low single digits at launch to the mid-40s percent earlier in 2026 and now the upper 50s with reasoning enhancements. Meta’s Muse Spark series trails closely while OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini variants occupy the next tier, underscoring intense lab competition. With three months remaining, further model iterations focused on multi-step reasoning or tool use could extend the upward trajectory before the December 31 resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วที่เกี่ยวข้อง
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
80%
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
33%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
86%
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