**Recent cold polar air advection has driven below-average maximum temperatures in Buenos Aires, positioning 14°C as the market favorite for August 9.** Official monitoring and numerical weather models indicate a high near 13–14°C (roughly 55–57°F) under mostly clear or partly cloudy skies, with morning lows around 4–5°C. This aligns with the latest 10-day guidance showing a modest recovery from the recent cold outbreak but still below the long-term August mean of about 15–17°C. Key factors include persistent southerly flow and high pressure promoting radiational cooling overnight and limited daytime warming. The 50% implied probability on 14°C and secondary support for 13°C (23.5%) reflect trader consensus around this narrow range, while the modest 16.5% on 15°C accounts for residual uncertainty in model timing of any weak warming or wind shift. Historical analogs for post-frontal winter days support this clustering, with resolution hinging on the official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional or equivalent station reading for the daily maximum. Updated model runs and the next official forecast briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts.