Recent global forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a southerly flow and increased cloud cover moderating daytime heating over Buenos Aires for October 1, supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 16–18°C rather than the seasonal average near 19–20°C. This setup stems from a transient high-pressure influence and limited northerly advection, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty in exact peak values tied to boundary-layer mixing and timing of any clearing. The closely matched market odds on 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C capture this narrow range of outcomes, as traders weigh the latest model consensus against potential revisions from afternoon observations or updated guidance. New model cycles and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional briefings in the coming 48 hours represent key decision points for position adjustments.