Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 23?
32°C 44%
33°C 29%
31°C 16%
34°C 8.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 23, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
7%
31°C
16%
32°C
44%
33°C
29%
34°C
9%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 44%
33°C 29%
31°C 16%
34°C 8.5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 23, 2026
26°C or below
$382 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$315 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$521 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C
$533 ปริมาณ
1%
30°C
$342 ปริมาณ
7%
31°C
$426 ปริมาณ
16%
32°C
$261 ปริมาณ
44%
33°C
$521 ปริมาณ
29%
34°C
$673 ปริมาณ
9%
35°C
$969 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C or higher
$126 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,070วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,070วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s July 23 maximum reflects short-range forecast uncertainty driven by the interplay between subtropical high pressure and incoming tropical moisture. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal July temperatures aligns with typical summer solar heating and humidity levels that support afternoon peaks near 32°C, yet model runs diverge on the timing and extent of cloud cover and showers that can suppress daily highs by 1–2°C. Recent strengthening of a high-pressure ridge has favored clearer conditions and stronger insolation in prior days, boosting probabilities for the upper end of the range, while South China Sea convection introduces variable moisture that favors the lower outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional model ensembles expected within 24 hours will likely resolve these differences ahead of market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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