Recent official forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high of 14–15°C for Istanbul on October 16, driven by persistent northerly winds and lingering showers that limit daytime warming. These conditions follow a cooler-than-average pattern, with model consensus showing limited potential for brief breaks in cloud cover that might push readings to 16°C. The market's heavy weighting toward 15°C and 14°C reflects this alignment with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for mid-October under similar synoptic setups. Traders are monitoring the next model runs and any updates from regional forecasting centers for shifts in wind or precipitation timing that could alter the daily maximum.