The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 23?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 23?
39°C 45%
38°C 32%
40°C 18%
37°C 6.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 23, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
6%
38°C
32%
39°C
45%
40°C
18%
41°C
3%
42°C
<1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 45%
38°C 32%
40°C 18%
37°C 6.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 23, 2026
34°C or below
$801 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$162 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C
$121 ปริมาณ
1%
37°C
$156 ปริมาณ
6%
38°C
$307 ปริมาณ
32%
39°C
$282 ปริมาณ
45%
40°C
$834 ปริมาณ
18%
41°C
$129 ปริมาณ
3%
42°C
$213 ปริมาณ
<1%
43°C
$207 ปริมาณ
1%
44°C or higher
$201 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,415วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,415วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 23, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 21, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The third official heatwave of 2026, driven by a surge of Saharan air under persistent high pressure and clear skies, anchors trader focus on 38–40°C for Madrid’s July 23 maximum. AEMET and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows stable deterministic runs centered near 38°C, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s extremes and daily highs tracking 33–39°C through late July. This consensus, set against climatological July averages near 37°C, explains the heavy weighting toward 39°C and 38°C outcomes while leaving modest room for 40°C if advection strengthens. Final model updates and official observations on the day remain the key near-term variables.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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