**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.** This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average. Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?
38°C 52%
37°C 47%
39°C 4%
41°C <1%
ใหม่
$16,292 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$16,292 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
47%
38°C
52%
39°C
4%
40°C
<1%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
38°C 52%
37°C 47%
39°C 4%
41°C <1%
ใหม่
$16,292 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$16,292 ปริมาณ
Jul 31, 2026
35°C or below
$752 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C
$748 ปริมาณ
<1%
37°C
$4,090 ปริมาณ
47%
38°C
$3,863 ปริมาณ
52%
39°C
$1,821 ปริมาณ
4%
40°C
$1,209 ปริมาณ
<1%
41°C
$1,121 ปริมาณ
1%
42°C
$744 ปริมาณ
<1%
43°C
$828 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C
$690 ปริมาณ
<1%
45°C or higher
$424 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.**
This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average.
Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,292วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.**
This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average.
Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,292วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from sources like the BBC and European forecasts points to a peak high near 38°C in Madrid on July 31, 2026, under persistent high-pressure dominance, clear skies, and light southwesterly winds that maximize daytime solar heating while limiting cloud cover or cooling.** This aligns with the market-implied odds favoring 38°C (47%) over 37°C (28.5%) or 39°C (25%), reflecting tight spreads driven by ensemble variability in exact maximum timing and urban heat-island effects at official stations. Madrid has already recorded daily highs of 38°C in recent days amid a broader Iberian heatwave, with July climatology showing typical maxima around 32–34°C but current conditions pushing 3–6°C above average. Key resolution factors include the official maximum reported by AEMET or equivalent monitoring, with minimal precipitation expected to keep temperatures elevated; updated runs from GFS and ECMWF in the next 24–48 hours could narrow the 37–39°C window as landfall timing and steering patterns clarify. Traders appear to weigh the strong consensus for peak heat against realistic model divergence typical this close to the event.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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