Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate mostly clear to partly cloudy skies over Tokyo on October 12, with afternoon highs expected near 25°C under northerly to northeasterly flow. This aligns with the market's strong weighting toward 25°C, reflecting a modest cooling trend from the unusually warm early October period—when daily highs frequently reached 26–27°C amid persistent high pressure. Mid-October climatology shows average highs around 22–23°C, so current conditions remain elevated but are moderating as seasonal patterns strengthen. Limited model spread and minimal precipitation risk support the tight clustering around 24–25°C, with little evidence yet of warmer or cooler outliers materializing.