Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and international models indicate a high of 22–23°C for Tokyo on October 3, driven by northeasterly flow and partial cloud cover following a cooler frontal passage on October 2. This positions 23°C as the leading market-implied outcome at 60%, with 24°C at 29% reflecting minor ensemble spread in afternoon warming under clearing skies. Historical October averages near 23–25°C provide context, but current steering patterns and stable high pressure limit upside risk to 25°C or higher while keeping downside below 22°C less likely. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.