Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Wellington on July 29?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 29?
13°C 47%
14°C 38%
12°C 10%
15°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 29, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
3%
12°C
10%
13°C
47%
14°C
38%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 47%
14°C 38%
12°C 10%
15°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 29, 2026
8°C or below
$351 ปริมาณ
<1%
9°C
$351 ปริมาณ
<1%
10°C
$92 ปริมาณ
2%
11°C
$11 ปริมาณ
3%
12°C
$35 ปริมาณ
10%
13°C
$404 ปริมาณ
47%
14°C
$392 ปริมาณ
38%
15°C
$62 ปริมาณ
6%
16°C
$5 ปริมาณ
2%
17°C
$10 ปริมาณ
2%
18°C or higher
$351 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,063วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,063วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 27, 2026, 4:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington’s winter climate features average July daily maxima near 12–13°C, with highs rarely exceeding 15°C or dropping below 10°C amid frequent southerly winds and frontal passages. Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService and international ensembles converge on a 12–14°C range for July 29, driven by a transient ridge delivering mostly fine conditions before increasing cloud and a possible weak front, with light northerly flow limiting daytime warming. The recent July 22 high of exactly 14°C illustrates how quickly model consensus can shift probabilities, and NIWA’s seasonal outlook for near- or below-average temperatures reinforces the modest upside risk. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probabilities to 13°C and 14°C, reflecting tight forecast spreads and typical day-to-day variability in the capital’s exposed coastal setting two days before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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