Recent seismic data from the USGS shows five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, followed by a multi-week lull with no additional events above this threshold. This pattern aligns with the historical annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes and supports trader consensus favoring lower totals by June 30, as reflected in the 50% implied probability for eight or fewer. Seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution characterized by episodic clustering and extended quiet intervals, with current monitoring of major fault systems indicating no immediate surge in energy release. Upcoming USGS catalog updates through early June will provide key observational data to refine expectations for any late-spring activity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)
≤8 50%
10 15%
9 14%
11 12%
$90,387 ปริมาณ
$90,387 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
≤8
50%
9
21%
10
15%
11
12%
12
7%
13
3%
14+
2%
≤8 50%
10 15%
9 14%
11 12%
$90,387 ปริมาณ
$90,387 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
≤8
$25,442 ปริมาณ
50%
9
$17,549 ปริมาณ
21%
10
$8,417 ปริมาณ
15%
11
$28,083 ปริมาณ
12%
12
$4,406 ปริมาณ
7%
13
$2,773 ปริมาณ
3%
14+
$3,718 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic data from the USGS shows five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, followed by a multi-week lull with no additional events above this threshold. This pattern aligns with the historical annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes and supports trader consensus favoring lower totals by June 30, as reflected in the 50% implied probability for eight or fewer. Seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution characterized by episodic clustering and extended quiet intervals, with current monitoring of major fault systems indicating no immediate surge in energy release. Upcoming USGS catalog updates through early June will provide key observational data to refine expectations for any late-spring activity.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$90,387วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic data from the USGS shows five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, followed by a multi-week lull with no additional events above this threshold. This pattern aligns with the historical annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes and supports trader consensus favoring lower totals by June 30, as reflected in the 50% implied probability for eight or fewer. Seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution characterized by episodic clustering and extended quiet intervals, with current monitoring of major fault systems indicating no immediate surge in energy release. Upcoming USGS catalog updates through early June will provide key observational data to refine expectations for any late-spring activity.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$90,387วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 2, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent seismic data from the USGS shows five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, and Japan, followed by a multi-week lull with no additional events above this threshold. This pattern aligns with the historical annual average of roughly 15–16 such quakes and supports trader consensus favoring lower totals by June 30, as reflected in the 50% implied probability for eight or fewer. Seismic activity follows a Poisson distribution characterized by episodic clustering and extended quiet intervals, with current monitoring of major fault systems indicating no immediate surge in energy release. Upcoming USGS catalog updates through early June will provide key observational data to refine expectations for any late-spring activity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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