India’s military posture toward Pakistan remains shaped by the May 2025 Operation Sindoor strikes, launched after the Pahalgam terror attack, which triggered four days of clashes before a US-brokered ceasefire. As of early October 2026, senior Indian commanders, including Western Command GOC Lt Gen Manoj Kumar Katiyar, have publicly warned that any future provocation would prompt a harsher response—explicitly rejecting Pakistan’s “nuclear bluff”—while reiterating that terror infrastructure on Pakistani soil will face direct action. Diplomatic friction persists through UN exchanges, with India accusing Islamabad of sponsoring terrorism and rejecting third-party mediation claims; both sides also reference the suspended Indus Waters Treaty and earlier naval incidents. A US think tank has flagged moderate risk of renewed armed conflict this year tied to cross-border militancy, keeping trader focus on escalation triggers such as fresh attacks or major policy shifts.