Tensions between Israel and Turkey center on competing influence in post-Assad Syria, where Turkey backs the new government with military training and bases while Israel conducts preventive airstrikes, including the August 2026 strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase to block potential Turkish deployments near its interests. Both sides have exchanged sharp rhetoric, legal actions such as Turkish Interpol requests and Israeli ICC preparations targeting each other's leaders, and economic measures, yet direct military confrontation has been avoided. Turkish President Erdogan has explicitly rejected inevitable-war scenarios and tied Israeli threat narratives to domestic election politics ahead of October 2026 voting. US diplomatic efforts, including deconfliction mechanisms involving Syria, combined with mutual incentives to protect regional alignments and avoid broader escalation, underpin trader consensus that a clash remains unlikely through 2026.