Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$17,843 ปริมาณ
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
7%
$17,843 ปริมาณ
October 31, 2026
$9,518 ปริมาณ
4%
December 31, 2026
$8,325 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,843วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,843วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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