Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts establish a minimum of 28°C for October 1, with a daytime range of 28–34°C under light winds and initially fine conditions turning cloudy with isolated showers later. This aligns with trader consensus at 92% implied probability for a 28°C low, reflecting model agreement on retained overnight warmth from recent high temperatures and humidity near 60–90%. Historical early-October baselines in Hong Kong typically feature minima around 24–26°C, but current atmospheric stability and weak steering patterns support the elevated floor. A realistic shift below 28°C would require unexpected radiative cooling or revised observational data from the Observatory, though no such updates have emerged in the latest model runs.