Recent forecasts from agencies including the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international models indicate Mexico City’s overnight minimum on October 6 will likely settle near 13–14 °C under persistent cloud cover, light northerly flow, and widespread showers tied to the early-season cold front. These conditions suppress daytime heating while preventing radiational cooling that could drop temperatures further, aligning with climatological averages for early October at 2,240 m elevation. Market-implied odds clustering around 13–15 °C (roughly 34 % each) and the 48.5 % probability for 18 °C or higher reflect traders’ assessment that typical autumn instability will keep the daily low in the mid-teens Celsius, with only slim chance of either unseasonal warmth or a rare sub-9 °C reading. Updated model runs through October 5 will refine the exact minimum ahead of market resolution.