Traders see the 23–25°C outcomes clustered near 35–38% as the most probable for Tokyo’s July 28 minimum because official JMA guidance and ensemble models place the expected overnight low near the long-term July average of 23–24°C under cloudy skies and scattered showers. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling compared with clear nights, keeping temperatures from dropping sharply while preventing the warmer extremes that would require strong southerly flow or clearing. Model spreads remain modest two days out, producing the tight probability band reflected in the market; any shift in the 48-hour forecast toward more persistent rain or stronger winds could tilt the distribution toward 22°C or 26°C, but current guidance shows no such signal.