**Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in the Southern District of New York on four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent not-guilty plea.** The 72.5% "No" probability on a guilty verdict across all counts reflects trader assessment of several structural and procedural factors. Defense counsel has signaled motions to dismiss based on head-of-state immunity arguments and challenges to the circumstances of his removal from Venezuela, drawing on precedent such as the Noriega prosecution while highlighting distinctions. The extended pretrial period through late 2026 allows time for further filings, potential plea discussions, or diplomatic shifts that could alter the case trajectory. Complex multi-defendant proceedings, evidentiary hurdles in proving state-sponsored trafficking allegations, and the possibility of acquittals or hung juries on individual counts contribute to the market's pricing of full conviction as the less likely outcome. No major new developments have emerged since the trial date was confirmed in July 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว28% โอกาส
$126,284 ปริมาณ
$126,284 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2027
28% โอกาส
$126,284 ปริมาณ
$126,284 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in the Southern District of New York on four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent not-guilty plea.**
The 72.5% "No" probability on a guilty verdict across all counts reflects trader assessment of several structural and procedural factors. Defense counsel has signaled motions to dismiss based on head-of-state immunity arguments and challenges to the circumstances of his removal from Venezuela, drawing on precedent such as the Noriega prosecution while highlighting distinctions. The extended pretrial period through late 2026 allows time for further filings, potential plea discussions, or diplomatic shifts that could alter the case trajectory.
Complex multi-defendant proceedings, evidentiary hurdles in proving state-sponsored trafficking allegations, and the possibility of acquittals or hung juries on individual counts contribute to the market's pricing of full conviction as the less likely outcome. No major new developments have emerged since the trial date was confirmed in July 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$126,284วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in the Southern District of New York on four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent not-guilty plea.**
The 72.5% "No" probability on a guilty verdict across all counts reflects trader assessment of several structural and procedural factors. Defense counsel has signaled motions to dismiss based on head-of-state immunity arguments and challenges to the circumstances of his removal from Venezuela, drawing on precedent such as the Noriega prosecution while highlighting distinctions. The extended pretrial period through late 2026 allows time for further filings, potential plea discussions, or diplomatic shifts that could alter the case trajectory.
Complex multi-defendant proceedings, evidentiary hurdles in proving state-sponsored trafficking allegations, and the possibility of acquittals or hung juries on individual counts contribute to the market's pricing of full conviction as the less likely outcome. No major new developments have emerged since the trial date was confirmed in July 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$126,284วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Nicolás Maduro faces a June 2027 trial in the Southern District of New York on four felony counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and cocaine importation conspiracy, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and subsequent not-guilty plea.** The 72.5% "No" probability on a guilty verdict across all counts reflects trader assessment of several structural and procedural factors. Defense counsel has signaled motions to dismiss based on head-of-state immunity arguments and challenges to the circumstances of his removal from Venezuela, drawing on precedent such as the Noriega prosecution while highlighting distinctions. The extended pretrial period through late 2026 allows time for further filings, potential plea discussions, or diplomatic shifts that could alter the case trajectory. Complex multi-defendant proceedings, evidentiary hurdles in proving state-sponsored trafficking allegations, and the possibility of acquittals or hung juries on individual counts contribute to the market's pricing of full conviction as the less likely outcome. No major new developments have emerged since the trial date was confirmed in July 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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