Current low and stable SARS-CoV-2 transmission underpins the 94.3% market-implied odds against a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026. CDC data through mid-June show Rt near 0.98 nationally, with COVID-19 accounting for just 0.1% of emergency visits and test positivity below 1% in most regions; WHO surveillance through May similarly reports declining or stable cases across 62 countries and only 1.2% positivity in sentinel testing. Dominant Omicron subvariants such as XFG and BA.3.2 continue to circulate at low levels without meeting pandemic thresholds. Trader consensus reflects this sustained suppression, though a novel zoonotic spillover or rapidly evolving variant with enhanced transmissibility and immune escape could still alter trajectories before year-end.