Jess Wilson holds the leading position in the next Victorian premier market at 63.5 percent, reflecting Coalition two-party-preferred leads of 55-45 in recent DemosAU and other polling ahead of the November 28 state election. Labor’s July leadership change, which installed Ben Carroll after Jacinta Allan’s resignation amid caucus pressure over construction sector integrity concerns and weak personal ratings, produced no sustained bounce, with Labor primary support remaining in the low-to-mid 20s. Wilson’s consistent edge as preferred premier (43-34 versus Carroll) and policy focus on justice, housing, and cost-of-living measures underpin trader consensus. One Nation’s primary vote near 22 percent, led by Warren Pickering at 5.5 percent, fragments support without altering the Coalition’s projected path. Other Labor figures trail due to the government’s structural vulnerabilities after more than a decade in office.