Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of roughly eight to ten points heading into the 28 November Victorian state election. Labor’s primary vote has remained near 22 percent while the Coalition holds around 31 percent and One Nation sits near 22 percent, with preferences continuing to favor the Coalition in head-to-head matchups. These trends have reinforced trader expectations that the Coalition will secure the most seats, leaving Labor positioned as the primary opposition party. One Nation’s elevated primary support has not translated into comparable odds for second place, and minor parties remain at low implied probabilities consistent with historical patterns of preference flows in Victorian Legislative Assembly contests.