**RFK Jr. remains firmly entrenched as HHS Secretary with strong administration backing, making an exit by October 31, 2026, highly unlikely in traders' view.** As of early September 2026, he continues directing department operations, including a recent senior leadership reorganization that streamlined reporting lines under key aides while advancing MAHA priorities such as dietary guidelines, food additives, and chronic disease initiatives. President Trump has publicly reinforced Kennedy’s role through cabinet-level engagement on issues like autism research and budget testimony, with no signals of withdrawal or replacement. Criticism from public health groups and media reports of limited day-to-day engagement have surfaced, yet these have not translated into institutional pressure or personnel shifts that would indicate departure. Historical patterns for cabinet officials in the first half of a term, combined with Kennedy’s ongoing policy execution and political alignment, support the market’s assessment that he will stay through the short window. Scheduled budget and oversight activities through fall further anchor continuity expectations.