Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk holds a stable Sejm majority through his coalition despite recent strains, including a junior partner’s ministerial resignation over local election rules and ongoing clashes with President Karol Nawrocki over Constitutional Tribunal reforms. Removing the government requires a constructive vote of no confidence needing 231 seats, a threshold the opposition has not approached amid divided public opinion and polls showing no surge in support for alternatives. The narrow window to December 31 further limits realistic paths to change absent an abrupt coalition fracture or unexpected personal developments. Trader consensus at 96.4% for “No” reflects these institutional barriers and the absence of imminent triggers.