Trader consensus implies an 85.4% probability of no replacement for Iran in the FIFA World Cup 2026, driven by the Iranian FA's May 7 confirmation of participation steps—demanding FIFA guarantees on U.S. visa assurances and respect for players amid IRGC ties concerns—and FIFA's firm rejection of relocation requests or substitutions. Geopolitical tensions escalated in late April when a U.S. envoy floated Italy as a replacement, promptly dismissed by Italian officials and FIFA, while the U.S. clarified players are welcome sans terror links. UAE trails at 4.3% as a plausible AFC playoff contender, but absent an official Iranian withdrawal from U.S.-hosted group games—sparked by unresolved security disputes or war escalation—the status quo holds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNo Replacement 85.3%
Italy 7.0%
UAE 4.4%
Other <1%
$29,612 ปริมาณ
$29,612 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
No Replacement
85%
Italy
7%
UAE
4%
Other
1%
Bolivia
<1%
No Replacement 85.3%
Italy 7.0%
UAE 4.4%
Other <1%
$29,612 ปริมาณ
$29,612 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
No Replacement
$8,325 ปริมาณ
85%
Italy
$14,406 ปริมาณ
7%
UAE
$2,961 ปริมาณ
4%
Other
$2,280 ปริมาณ
1%
Bolivia
$1,641 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies an 85.4% probability of no replacement for Iran in the FIFA World Cup 2026, driven by the Iranian FA's May 7 confirmation of participation steps—demanding FIFA guarantees on U.S. visa assurances and respect for players amid IRGC ties concerns—and FIFA's firm rejection of relocation requests or substitutions. Geopolitical tensions escalated in late April when a U.S. envoy floated Italy as a replacement, promptly dismissed by Italian officials and FIFA, while the U.S. clarified players are welcome sans terror links. UAE trails at 4.3% as a plausible AFC playoff contender, but absent an official Iranian withdrawal from U.S.-hosted group games—sparked by unresolved security disputes or war escalation—the status quo holds.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,612วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus implies an 85.4% probability of no replacement for Iran in the FIFA World Cup 2026, driven by the Iranian FA's May 7 confirmation of participation steps—demanding FIFA guarantees on U.S. visa assurances and respect for players amid IRGC ties concerns—and FIFA's firm rejection of relocation requests or substitutions. Geopolitical tensions escalated in late April when a U.S. envoy floated Italy as a replacement, promptly dismissed by Italian officials and FIFA, while the U.S. clarified players are welcome sans terror links. UAE trails at 4.3% as a plausible AFC playoff contender, but absent an official Iranian withdrawal from U.S.-hosted group games—sparked by unresolved security disputes or war escalation—the status quo holds.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$29,612วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus implies an 85.4% probability of no replacement for Iran in the FIFA World Cup 2026, driven by the Iranian FA's May 7 confirmation of participation steps—demanding FIFA guarantees on U.S. visa assurances and respect for players amid IRGC ties concerns—and FIFA's firm rejection of relocation requests or substitutions. Geopolitical tensions escalated in late April when a U.S. envoy floated Italy as a replacement, promptly dismissed by Italian officials and FIFA, while the U.S. clarified players are welcome sans terror links. UAE trails at 4.3% as a plausible AFC playoff contender, but absent an official Iranian withdrawal from U.S.-hosted group games—sparked by unresolved security disputes or war escalation—the status quo holds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
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