Iran qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through AFC third-round play in March 2025 and remains on the official schedule in Group G with confirmed fixtures. FIFA leadership has repeatedly affirmed participation, including direct statements from President Gianni Infantino, while facilitating practical adjustments such as a training base in Tijuana, Mexico, and match-day travel logistics despite U.S. visa and security constraints tied to regional tensions. The Iranian federation has continued preparations, with the squad arriving in North America and addressing ticket and staffing issues through FIFA coordination. Trader consensus at 99.1% reflects these institutional commitments and on-site arrangements, though abrupt political directives from Tehran or unforeseen diplomatic escalations remain the primary residual risks that could alter the outcome before group-stage matches conclude.