**Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the idea of referendums on major reforms throughout his presidency but has never convened one, consistent with the 92% implied probability that none will occur by December 31.** Recent developments reinforce this outlook. In August 2026, after the Constitutional Council struck down the flagship under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary passage by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a direct popular vote. The assisted-dying law, another long-standing priority, advanced through parliament and was promulgated without referendum mechanisms. With Macron’s second and final term ending in 2027 and the next presidential election set for April, attention has shifted to legislative fixes and legacy measures amid a fragmented National Assembly. Past public statements on using Article 11 referendums for economic, social, or environmental issues have not translated into action, and no qualifying presidential decree appears imminent in the remaining months of 2026. Traders price the low likelihood accordingly, viewing legislative routes and the compressed timeline as significant barriers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว8% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 30, 2026
8% โอกาส
ใหม่
ใหม่
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the idea of referendums on major reforms throughout his presidency but has never convened one, consistent with the 92% implied probability that none will occur by December 31.**
Recent developments reinforce this outlook. In August 2026, after the Constitutional Council struck down the flagship under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary passage by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a direct popular vote. The assisted-dying law, another long-standing priority, advanced through parliament and was promulgated without referendum mechanisms.
With Macron’s second and final term ending in 2027 and the next presidential election set for April, attention has shifted to legislative fixes and legacy measures amid a fragmented National Assembly. Past public statements on using Article 11 referendums for economic, social, or environmental issues have not translated into action, and no qualifying presidential decree appears imminent in the remaining months of 2026. Traders price the low likelihood accordingly, viewing legislative routes and the compressed timeline as significant barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the idea of referendums on major reforms throughout his presidency but has never convened one, consistent with the 92% implied probability that none will occur by December 31.**
Recent developments reinforce this outlook. In August 2026, after the Constitutional Council struck down the flagship under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary passage by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a direct popular vote. The assisted-dying law, another long-standing priority, advanced through parliament and was promulgated without referendum mechanisms.
With Macron’s second and final term ending in 2027 and the next presidential election set for April, attention has shifted to legislative fixes and legacy measures amid a fragmented National Assembly. Past public statements on using Article 11 referendums for economic, social, or environmental issues have not translated into action, and no qualifying presidential decree appears imminent in the remaining months of 2026. Traders price the low likelihood accordingly, viewing legislative routes and the compressed timeline as significant barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the idea of referendums on major reforms throughout his presidency but has never convened one, consistent with the 92% implied probability that none will occur by December 31.** Recent developments reinforce this outlook. In August 2026, after the Constitutional Council struck down the flagship under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary passage by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a direct popular vote. The assisted-dying law, another long-standing priority, advanced through parliament and was promulgated without referendum mechanisms. With Macron’s second and final term ending in 2027 and the next presidential election set for April, attention has shifted to legislative fixes and legacy measures amid a fragmented National Assembly. Past public statements on using Article 11 referendums for economic, social, or environmental issues have not translated into action, and no qualifying presidential decree appears imminent in the remaining months of 2026. Traders price the low likelihood accordingly, viewing legislative routes and the compressed timeline as significant barriers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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