Reza Pahlavi remains in exile as the Islamic Republic maintains control over Iran's security apparatus, borders, and political institutions, limiting feasible entry conditions for opposition figures. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns roughly a 6% probability to his entry by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of regime collapse, major defections, or safe corridors. In March 2026, Pahlavi publicly stated readiness to return as soon as conditions allow, even before full regime change, to encourage internal shifts and stand with compatriots, while noting uncertainty over the first liberated area. Subsequent months have featured continued diaspora advocacy, European engagements, and public messaging on national issues without reported attempts or enabling diplomatic or military developments. Scheduled events such as ongoing protests or international policy shifts could alter access, though no near-term catalysts have emerged to shift the low implied probability.