The tight Crowley-Tiffany contest, rated a toss-up by forecasters with Marquette Law School polling showing a 49-46% split among likely voters, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 2.6M-3M range. Democrats hold a modest edge in self-reported certainty to vote, while independents remain less committed, creating offsetting pressures in a state with historically elevated midterm participation when races are competitive. Primary turnout slightly exceeded prior cycles, yet absentee ballot requests have declined from 2022 levels, adding uncertainty ahead of the November 3 contest. Continued mobilization by both parties and any shifts in independent engagement could widen or narrow the favored brackets before Election Day.