Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot have shaped trader positioning for the 2026 House popular vote margin, with recent surveys showing Democrats ahead by five to six points. Low presidential approval ratings near 41 to 45 percent have reinforced expectations of typical midterm losses for the president's party, though redistricting changes in several states add uncertainty to how national vote shares translate into seats. Polling trends over the past month indicate steady Democratic leads without dramatic shifts, while economic indicators and early campaign fundraising have kept outcomes in the mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic margin range as the most probable scenarios. Significant barriers remain for larger swings, including potential late-cycle events or shifts in voter turnout patterns that could alter the final distribution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Democrats 8-10% 15%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 9.6%
Republicans 2-4% 9%
$34,686 Vol.
$34,686 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
3%
Democrats 14-16%
4%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
13%
Democrats 8-10%
15%
Democrats 6-8%
8%
Democrats 4-6%
7%
Democrats 2-4%
3%
Democrats 0-2%
5%
Republicans 0-2%
10%
Republicans 2-4%
9%
Republicans 4-6%
2%
Republicans 6%+
3%
Democrats 8-10% 15%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 9.6%
Republicans 2-4% 9%
$34,686 Vol.
$34,686 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$804 Vol.
3%
Democrats 14-16%
$476 Vol.
4%
Democrats 12-14%
$462 Vol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$830 Vol.
13%
Democrats 8-10%
$1,555 Vol.
15%
Democrats 6-8%
$693 Vol.
8%
Democrats 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
Democrats 2-4%
$1,012 Vol.
3%
Democrats 0-2%
$889 Vol.
5%
Republicans 0-2%
$864 Vol.
10%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,856 Vol.
9%
Republicans 4-6%
$230 Vol.
2%
Republicans 6%+
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot have shaped trader positioning for the 2026 House popular vote margin, with recent surveys showing Democrats ahead by five to six points. Low presidential approval ratings near 41 to 45 percent have reinforced expectations of typical midterm losses for the president's party, though redistricting changes in several states add uncertainty to how national vote shares translate into seats. Polling trends over the past month indicate steady Democratic leads without dramatic shifts, while economic indicators and early campaign fundraising have kept outcomes in the mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic margin range as the most probable scenarios. Significant barriers remain for larger swings, including potential late-cycle events or shifts in voter turnout patterns that could alter the final distribution.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$34,686Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot have shaped trader positioning for the 2026 House popular vote margin, with recent surveys showing Democrats ahead by five to six points. Low presidential approval ratings near 41 to 45 percent have reinforced expectations of typical midterm losses for the president's party, though redistricting changes in several states add uncertainty to how national vote shares translate into seats. Polling trends over the past month indicate steady Democratic leads without dramatic shifts, while economic indicators and early campaign fundraising have kept outcomes in the mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic margin range as the most probable scenarios. Significant barriers remain for larger swings, including potential late-cycle events or shifts in voter turnout patterns that could alter the final distribution.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,686Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot have shaped trader positioning for the 2026 House popular vote margin, with recent surveys showing Democrats ahead by five to six points. Low presidential approval ratings near 41 to 45 percent have reinforced expectations of typical midterm losses for the president's party, though redistricting changes in several states add uncertainty to how national vote shares translate into seats. Polling trends over the past month indicate steady Democratic leads without dramatic shifts, while economic indicators and early campaign fundraising have kept outcomes in the mid-single-digit to low-double-digit Democratic margin range as the most probable scenarios. Significant barriers remain for larger swings, including potential late-cycle events or shifts in voter turnout patterns that could alter the final distribution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong